Welsh Government – draft budget
2016/17
Left Unity Wales
analysis and comment
The draft budget for Wales was published today by the Welsh
Government: it continues to represent a cut in real terms spending over the
current year of around 1.5% as a direct consequence of the announcement made
chancellor Osborne in his spending review two weeks ago.
Jane Hutt the Wales finance minister has tried to make the
best of a bad deal by re-balancing expenditure toward the NHS – this has to be
done to avoid serious service challenges. As the details unfold, all services
in Wales will see the screws tightening over this and the next four years, on
top of cuts already made in previous years.
The People’s Assembly Wales has calculated that if the £16
billion spending of 2009/10, the final year of benefit of the last Wales
comprehensive spending review was protected against inflation it should be £18
billion by 2018 not the £15.5 billion that is projected. This is a real terms
cut of 16% as a direct consequence of the financial crisis.
As Jane Hutt has already admitted increased service demands,
such as from an ageing population and welfare cuts, are likely to increase
budget pressures by £1 billion over the same period. If this happens, the real
cut will be nearer 22%.
Families across Wales will also be directly hit by the
welfare cuts announced in Osborne’s spending review. One recent Welsh
Government estimate was that these would cost Welsh families around £1 billion
a year. Over the next four years they have been estimated to increase by
another £500 million.
Taking the cuts in services together with these welfare cuts
we estimate that an average family of four in Wales will be losing £6000 per
year in the social wage and direct benefits. Of course lower income households
will lose more, possibly up to £10,000 per year.
Over the next few weeks, as the reality of yet another round
of austerity rolls out across the Welsh NHS, councils, schools, further and
higher education, people locally will start to experience the pain of the Tory
cuts.
The working class are still paying for a financial crisis
they did not create.
The People’s Assembly Wales is calling upon Assembly Members
to do all they can to avoid this cuts. If, at the last resort, alternative
money cannot be found, then they should be prepared to challenge the Tory
government and vote against a cuts budget. They should not just pass their
problem down to local people and service providers like councils but pass it
back up to the government that created it. If the unelected House of Lords can
challenge the government so can our elected Assembly.
Please sign this People’s Assembly Wales #noausteritywales
38 Degrees Petition:
Links:
Here is the full budget details – see ‘Draft Budget action
tables for the figures’: http://gov.wales/funding/budget/draft-budget-2016-17/?lang=en
2009-10 budget is as it was the last year to benefit from
the last Welsh comprehensive spending review: http://www.assembly.wales/Research%20Documents/Draft%20Budget%202009%20-%20Research%20paper-11112009-152521/09-030-English.pdf
Real terms cut has been calculated using the Treasury’s own
guidance: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/480585/GDP_Deflators_Autumn_Statement_November_2015_update.csv/preview
And here, using the formula 2009/10 up to 2014/15 then
uprating for inflation using the UK Treasury annual projections 2015/16 up to
2017/18 : https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/205904/GDP_Deflators_User_Guide.pdf.
Extra £1 billion in demands – Welsh Government statement: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-public-bodies-face-1bn-10471009
Effect of additional welfare cuts in Wales – Welsh Government
statement: http://gov.wales/about/cabinet/cabinetstatements/2015/julybudget/?lang=en
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