1. Welsh Government spending in 2009-2010 the last year of the effects of a comprehensive spending review: £15,841bn.
2. Using the UK Government’s GDP deflator guide and formulas
3. And current deflator figures
4. We arrive at the following conclusions
£15,841bn (2009-10) would need to be £17,976bn by 2017-18 to have kept pace with inflation
£15,841bn (2009-10) would need to be £19,218bn by 2019-20 to keep pace with forecast inflation
5. Compare with the actual revenue spend of 2017-18 of £15,500bn we can arrive at how much real terms revenue spending Wales has lost since 2009.
£17,976bn (what Wales would need to stand still in real terms with 2009-10) minus the actual spend of £15,500bn equals £2,476bn short or the cut in real terms
If Wales is to even stand still in terms of real revenue spending taking account of forecast inflation it will need £19,218bn by 2019-2020 a gap over current spending of £3,718bn.
