Sunday, September 3, 2017

Real cuts in the Welsh Government's revenue budget 2009-2018 & 2020

1. Welsh Government spending in 2009-2010 the last year of the effects of a comprehensive spending review: £15,841bn.




2. Using the UK Government’s GDP deflator guide and formulas




3. And current deflator figures




4. We arrive at the following conclusions


£15,841bn (2009-10) would need to be £17,976bn by 2017-18 to have kept pace with inflation


£15,841bn (2009-10) would need to be £19,218bn by 2019-20 to keep pace with forecast inflation
5. Compare with the actual revenue spend of 2017-18 of £15,500bn we can arrive at how much real terms revenue spending Wales has lost since 2009.


£17,976bn (what Wales would need to stand still in real terms with 2009-10) minus the actual spend of £15,500bn equals £2,476bn short or the cut in real terms

If Wales is to even stand still in terms of real revenue spending taking account of forecast inflation it will need £19,218bn by 2019-2020 a gap over current spending of £3,718bn.

No comments:

Post a Comment