Real cuts in the Welsh Government's revenue budget 2009-2018 & 2020

1. Welsh Government spending in 2009-2010 the last year of the effects of a comprehensive spending review: £15,841bn.

http://www.assembly.wales/Research%20Documents/Final%20Budget%202009%20-%20Research%20paper-07122009-156081/09-039-English.pdf

2. Using the UK Government’s GDP deflator guide and formulas

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/205904/GDP_Deflators_User_Guide.pdf

3. And current deflator figures

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gdp-deflators-at-market-prices-and-money-gdp-june-2017-quarterly-national-accounts-june-2017

4. We arrive at the following conclusions

£15,841bn (2009-10) would need to be £17,976bn by 2017-18 to have kept pace with inflation

£15,841bn (2009-10) would need to be £19,218bn by 2019-20 to keep pace with forecast inflation

5. Compare with the actual revenue spend of 2017-18 of £15,500bn we can arrive at how much real terms revenue spending Wales has lost since 2009.

£17,976bn (what Wales would need to stand still in real terms with 2009-10) minus the actual spend of £15,500bn equals £2,476bn short or the cut in real terms

If Wales is to even stand still in terms of real revenue spending taking account of forecast inflation it will need £19,218bn by 2019-2020 a gap over current spending of £3,718bn.